Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.6% vs 54.3%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Paul 53.6% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 52.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 52.0%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 51.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Dvorak
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Dvorak
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Dvorak
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
53.7% (354)
+0.5%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
59.0% (61)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
52.9% (34)
-6.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Paul
Home
53.9% (497)
55.1% (216)
Away
53.3% (522)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Dvorak
Paul
P1
54.6%
54.9%
P2
53.2%
54.5%
P3
54.3%
54.3%
OT
34.8%
44.4%
Final 5 min
46.1%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |