Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 52.3%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Dvorak wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.1% vs Paul 52.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 56.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 60.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 58.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Dvorak
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Dvorak
Paul
Last 10: Dvorak 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dvorak
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
5
Dvorak
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Dvorak
Paul
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (6,785)
52.6% (3,823)
+0.5%
Power Play
55.7% (1,012)
56.2% (484)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (889)
46.9% (576)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Dvorak has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dvorak is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,588).
Dvorak shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Paul
Home
54.7% (4,151)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
51.7% (4,535)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Dvorak
Paul
P1
54.5%
53.8%
P2
51.9%
51.0%
P3
53.1%
52.2%
OT
56.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:09 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 17:11 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 09:21 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | OT | 02:41 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 13:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 04:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |