Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.8% vs 57.5%). Look for Dvorak on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Dvorak wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 56.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 72.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dvorak
Hertl
Last 8: Dvorak 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dvorak
2
0
Dvorak
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Dvorak
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dvorak
3
1
Dvorak
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (291)
57.0% (718)
+0.0%
Power Play
83.3% (18)
64.9% (188)
+18.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
44.2% (77)
+5.8%
On power play, Dvorak has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
58.3% (151)
59.2% (463)
Away
57.4% (190)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
56.7%
56.3%
P2
56.7%
55.4%
P3
59.6%
60.5%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
52.0%▬
52.0%
57.8%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 12:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 18:02 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:21 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:59 | Neutral | Christian Dvorak |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |