Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dvorak wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dvorak 53.3% vs Hertl 57.5% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.0%
Defensive zone
Dvorak 79.7%
Neutral zone
Dvorak 62.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Dvorak
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Dvorak
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Dvorak
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Dvorak
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dvorak
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (804)
58.7% (858)
-4.5%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
55.8% (285)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (84)
62.9% (35)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dvorak is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (660).
Dvorak shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Dvorak
Hertl
Home
53.9% (497)
60.1% (599)
Away
53.3% (522)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Dvorak
Hertl
P1
54.6%
52.4%
P2
53.2%
63.9%
P3
54.3%
58.5%
OT
34.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.1%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dvorak
60.0%▲
53.5%
53.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:05 | Offensive | Christian Dvorak |