Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 47.7%). Look for Blackwell on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Blackwell wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 47.8% vs Hayes 47.8% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 65.8%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 54.2%
Neutral zone
Hayes 51.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Blackwell
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Blackwell
Hayes
Last 6: Blackwell 5-1 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
2
0
Blackwell
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
3
1
Blackwell
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (649)
47.6% (6,698)
+1.2%
Power Play
63.2% (38)
51.7% (702)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
41.8% (244)
45.4% (696)
-3.6%
On power play, Blackwell has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Blackwell is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (740).
Blackwell shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,970).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Hayes
Home
45.6% (436)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
49.3% (495)
47.4% (4,114)
By Period
Blackwell
Hayes
P1
48.0%
47.5%
P2
47.4%
47.7%
P3
47.4%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
54.1%
Final 5 min
52.6%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
44.0%▲
42.0%
47.6%
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 05:26 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Apr 19, 2022 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |