Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Blackwell on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 47.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Blackwell leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Blackwell 71.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.0%
Neutral zone
Dowd 62.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
Blackwell
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Blackwell
Dowd
Last 10: Blackwell 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
1
0
Blackwell
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Blackwell
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blackwell
4
1
Blackwell
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (706)
52.3% (6,036)
-3.0%
Power Play
63.2% (38)
56.1% (164)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (264)
44.1% (1,638)
-3.6%
On power play, Blackwell has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Blackwell is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (206).
Blackwell shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Dowd
Home
46.0% (485)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
48.9% (523)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Blackwell
Dowd
P1
47.3%
51.5%
P2
47.2%
50.4%
P3
48.1%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
45.9%
Final 5 min
52.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
47.5%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 14:43 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 2 | 11:06 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 05:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 02:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |