Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Blackwell wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 44.8% vs Donato 47.1% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 72.2%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 79.7%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 67.8%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Blackwell
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Blackwell
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Blackwell
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
1
2
Blackwell
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (180)
46.8% (297)
+2.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
41.0% (39)
-41.0%
Penalty Kill
31.4% (86)
100.0% (1)
-68.6%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +68.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Blackwell is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (227).
Blackwell shoots right. Donato is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Donato
Home
44.3% (149)
45.8% (142)
Away
41.2% (119)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Blackwell
Donato
P1
46.1%
49.5%
P2
34.5%
45.7%
P3
47.8%
43.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:41 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |