Scouting Report
Colin Blackwell holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Blackwell on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Blackwell wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 47.7% vs Donato 44.7% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Blackwell leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 62.9%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 87.7%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 68.2%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Blackwell
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Blackwell
Donato
Last 10: Blackwell 7-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Blackwell
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
5
0
Blackwell
Donato
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Blackwell
Donato
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (706)
44.0% (1,218)
+5.3%
Power Play
63.2% (38)
46.0% (248)
+17.2%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (264)
41.7% (12)
-1.2%
On power play, Blackwell has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Blackwell is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (802).
Blackwell shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Donato
Home
46.0% (485)
47.2% (743)
Away
48.9% (523)
41.4% (735)
By Period
Blackwell
Donato
P1
47.3%
43.8%
P2
47.2%
44.9%
P3
48.1%
43.7%
OT
50.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
52.6%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
47.5%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:41 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:00 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 14:47 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |