Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Blackwell wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 44.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 84.8%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 73.9%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 51.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Last 6: Blackwell 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Blackwell
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
2
0
Blackwell
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Blackwell
1
0
Blackwell
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (180)
55.7% (856)
-6.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
57.5% (233)
-57.5%
Penalty Kill
31.4% (86)
50.0% (144)
-18.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +57.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Blackwell is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (227).
Blackwell shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Blackwell
O'Reilly
Home
44.3% (149)
55.5% (616)
Away
41.2% (119)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Blackwell
O'Reilly
P1
46.1%
58.1%
P2
34.5%
54.9%
P3
47.8%
53.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 01:01 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:17 | Neutral | Colin Blackwell |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |