Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +15.2% FO% edge overall. Blackwell wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 44.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-15.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.9%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 92.7%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 76.5%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Blackwell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Blackwell
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Blackwell
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Blackwell
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (180)
58.7% (858)
-9.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.8% (285)
-55.8%
Penalty Kill
31.4% (86)
62.9% (35)
-31.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +55.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Blackwell is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (227).
Blackwell shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Hertl
Home
44.3% (149)
60.1% (599)
Away
41.2% (119)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Blackwell
Hertl
P1
46.1%
52.4%
P2
34.5%
63.9%
P3
47.8%
58.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |