Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Blackwell wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Blackwell 47.7% vs Hertl 54.3% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.1%
Defensive zone
Blackwell 75.5%
Neutral zone
Blackwell 56.8%
Result
Colin Blackwell favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Blackwell
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Blackwell
Hertl
Last 10: Blackwell 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Blackwell
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Blackwell
6
2
Blackwell
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Blackwell
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Blackwell
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (706)
53.9% (8,303)
-4.6%
Power Play
63.2% (38)
59.2% (1,995)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (264)
46.3% (806)
-5.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Blackwell is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (802).
Blackwell shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Blackwell
Hertl
Home
46.0% (485)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.9% (523)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Blackwell
Hertl
P1
47.3%
53.6%
P2
47.2%
54.2%
P3
48.1%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Blackwell
42.0%▼
46.0%
47.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:42 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 02:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:08 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:09 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Colin Blackwell |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 1 | 03:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |