Scouting Report
Colton Sissons holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sissons on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sissons wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sissons 55.9% vs Larkin 52.2% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 82.0%
Defensive zone
Sissons 65.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 63.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Sissons
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Sissons
Larkin
Last 6: Sissons 2-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Sissons
Larkin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sissons
2
1
Sissons
Larkin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Sissons
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sissons
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (439)
51.1% (915)
+6.8%
Power Play
61.9% (21)
59.4% (261)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (123)
48.2% (168)
+4.6%
On even strength, Sissons has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Sissons is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (411).
Sissons shoots right. Larkin is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (479).
Home / Away
Sissons
Larkin
Home
53.6% (278)
51.7% (686)
Away
60.0% (305)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Sissons
Larkin
P1
56.2%
52.5%
P2
58.3%
52.7%
P3
56.4%
51.4%
OT
0.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
54.4%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sissons
64.0%▲
59.5%
56.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 17:37 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:50 | Defensive | Colton Sissons |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |