Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Bedard wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Malkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Malkin 45.9% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 65.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 85.8%
Neutral zone
Bedard 68.7%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Bedard
Malkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Bedard
Malkin
Last 9: Bedard 1-8 Malkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
5
Bedard
Malkin
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Malkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
0
3
Bedard
Malkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Malkin
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
45.6% (10,081)
-5.4%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
50.1% (668)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
32.2% (59)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Malkin shoots left. Bedard is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,259).
Bedard shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Home / Away
Bedard
Malkin
Home
43.3% (785)
47.6% (5,395)
Away
38.9% (957)
44.0% (5,436)
By Period
Bedard
Malkin
P1
38.9%
45.9%
P2
41.2%
46.2%
P3
42.5%
45.2%
OT
42.9%
49.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
46.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:44 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 10:29 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 10:37 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |