Scouting Report
Connor Bedard holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Hughes 39.5% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 58.4%
Defensive zone
Bedard 78.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 54.0%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Bedard
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bedard
Hughes
Last 7: Bedard 4-3 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Hughes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
2
Bedard
Hughes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
36.7% (305)
+7.5%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
14.3% (7)
+52.4%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
33.3% (6)
+20.5%
On power play, Bedard has a +52.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hughes
Home
50.7% (223)
35.8% (159)
Away
42.6% (331)
36.5% (159)
By Period
Bedard
Hughes
P1
40.2%
42.3%
P2
49.2%
28.2%
P3
47.2%
37.2%
Final 5 min
45.2%
27.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:53 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 13:11 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:19 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |