Scouting Report
Connor Bedard holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Hughes 36.5% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 70.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 70.0%
Neutral zone
Hughes 51.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Bedard
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Bedard
Hughes
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
3
Bedard
Hughes
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Hughes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
3
Bedard
Hughes
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
36.0% (2,926)
+4.2%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
38.8% (224)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
31.0% (42)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Bedard is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,259).
Bedard shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,243).
Home / Away
Bedard
Hughes
Home
43.3% (785)
36.8% (1,681)
Away
38.9% (957)
35.3% (1,511)
By Period
Bedard
Hughes
P1
38.9%
36.9%
P2
41.2%
33.4%
P3
42.5%
38.2%
OT
42.9%
37.5%
Final 5 min
44.9%
34.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 09:58 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 16:53 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 13:11 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:19 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 10:28 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:58 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 07:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 5, 2024 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |