Scouting Report
Connor Bedard holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Carlsson on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Bedard wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs Carlsson 44.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 53.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 52.1%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 58.9%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Bedard
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Bedard
Carlsson
Last 9: Bedard 4-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Carlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
3
4
Bedard
Carlsson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
45.0% (695)
-0.8%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
46.4% (84)
+20.3%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
32.9% (85)
+20.9%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Bedard shoots right. Carlsson is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Bedard
Carlsson
Home
50.7% (223)
42.5% (435)
Away
42.6% (331)
45.5% (429)
By Period
Bedard
Carlsson
P1
40.2%
45.3%
P2
49.2%
38.7%
P3
47.2%
48.5%
OT
57.1%
41.7%
Final 5 min
45.2%
38.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
44.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |