Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (40.9% vs 40.7%). Look for Carlsson on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Bedard wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Carlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Carlsson 41.1% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Carlsson leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Carlsson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Bedard 59.5%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 52.8%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Bedard
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
Bedard
Carlsson
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
2
Bedard
Carlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carlsson
1
4
Bedard
Carlsson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
7
8
Bedard
Carlsson
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
40.9% (1,878)
-0.7%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
42.9% (156)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
34.7% (121)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Bedard is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,259).
Bedard shoots right. Carlsson is 41.7% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Home / Away
Bedard
Carlsson
Home
43.3% (785)
42.2% (1,051)
Away
38.9% (957)
39.2% (1,104)
By Period
Bedard
Carlsson
P1
38.9%
43.3%
P2
41.2%
36.2%
P3
42.5%
43.3%
OT
42.9%
40.7%
Final 5 min
44.9%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Carlsson
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:09 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 06:28 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:10 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 15:13 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 07:50 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:19 | Offensive | Leo Carlsson |