Connor Bedard vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Bedard wins 39.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 39.8% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Bedard 61.2%
Defensive zone
Bedard 72.9%
Neutral zone
Bedard 67.3%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Bedard
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
12
(21 meetings)
9
12
Bedard
MacKinnon
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Bedard
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
6
2
Bedard
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
7
Bedard
MacKinnon
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
38.0% (618)
49.2% (1,266)
-11.2%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
54.9% (193)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
49.1% (55)
+8.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Bedard is 39.2% vs right-shot opponents (171).
Bedard shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Bedard
MacKinnon
Home
40.5% (316)
50.9% (740)
Away
36.2% (340)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Bedard
MacKinnon
P1
37.2%
50.9%
P2
36.9%
51.8%
P3
40.7%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
43.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
38.3%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 10:37 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:13 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 18:03 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 03:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 05:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |