Connor Bedard vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 47.7% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Bedard leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 75.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.3%
26.7%
73.3%
Bedard
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Bedard
MacKinnon
Last 10: Bedard 7-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Bedard
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
0
Bedard
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
4
0
Bedard
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (283)
49.1% (825)
-4.2%
Power Play
76.2% (21)
65.4% (130)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (11)
34.5% (29)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Bedard is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Bedard shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Bedard
MacKinnon
Home
52.4% (145)
52.6% (489)
Away
42.4% (170)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Bedard
MacKinnon
P1
37.9%
50.3%
P2
48.6%
52.6%
P3
53.2%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.2%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
32.0%▼
47.5%
47.0%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |