Connor Bedard vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Bedard wins 45.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 46.5% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Bedard leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 50.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 63.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.8%
38.2%
61.8%
Bedard
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
11
(25 meetings)
14
11
Bedard
MacKinnon
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Bedard
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
8
1
Bedard
MacKinnon
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
5
4
Bedard
MacKinnon
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (505)
49.7% (1,038)
-5.5%
Power Play
66.7% (36)
63.7% (157)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (13)
34.4% (32)
+19.4%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Bedard is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Bedard shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Bedard
MacKinnon
Home
50.7% (223)
53.1% (618)
Away
42.6% (331)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Bedard
MacKinnon
P1
40.2%
49.3%
P2
49.2%
53.0%
P3
47.2%
50.7%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.2%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
45.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:36 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 10:32 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:46 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:08 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 10:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 07:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:34 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:08 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |