Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Bedard wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 60.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 68.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 68.4%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Bedard
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Bedard
Bjugstad
Last 7: Bedard 4-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
0
Bedard
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Bedard
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Bedard
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
48.6% (6,646)
-8.4%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
55.2% (829)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
44.3% (614)
+5.7%
On even strength, Bjugstad has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Bedard is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Bedard shoots right. Bjugstad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,334).
Home / Away
Bedard
Bjugstad
Home
43.3% (785)
49.8% (4,023)
Away
38.9% (957)
48.1% (4,066)
By Period
Bedard
Bjugstad
P1
38.9%
48.9%
P2
41.2%
49.1%
P3
42.5%
48.5%
OT
42.9%
61.3%
Final 5 min
44.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:30 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |