Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Bedard wins 40.5% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Roy 48.4% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Bedard leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 64.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 89.4%
Neutral zone
Roy 85.9%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 80.8%
19.2%
80.8%
Bedard
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Bedard
Roy
Last 10: Bedard 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
2
1
Bedard
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bedard
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
5
1
Bedard
Roy
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
48.7% (3,719)
-8.5%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
49.5% (283)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
45.5% (477)
+4.5%
On even strength, Roy has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Bedard is 40.5% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Bedard shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Home / Away
Bedard
Roy
Home
43.3% (785)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
38.9% (957)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Bedard
Roy
P1
38.9%
50.8%
P2
41.2%
46.3%
P3
42.5%
48.1%
OT
42.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:55 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:38 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 13:38 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:09 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |