Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bedard on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Bedard wins 41.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 41.4% vs Aho 51.3% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Bedard leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 80.8%
Defensive zone
Bedard 50.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 68.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Bedard
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Bedard
Aho
Last 10: Bedard 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Bedard
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
1
Bedard
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bedard
3
2
Bedard
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,635)
50.2% (6,646)
-10.0%
Power Play
51.8% (83)
58.9% (1,310)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
46.5% (465)
+3.5%
On even strength, Aho has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Bedard is 41.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,259).
Bedard shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Bedard
Aho
Home
43.3% (785)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
38.9% (957)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Bedard
Aho
P1
38.9%
51.1%
P2
41.2%
52.1%
P3
42.5%
50.8%
OT
42.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
44.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.9%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:54 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:55 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:59 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:18 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:05 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:21 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |