Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.2%
Defensive zone
Dewar 67.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Dewar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dewar
O'Reilly
Last 6: Dewar 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Dewar
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
0
Dewar
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,037)
56.2% (15,290)
-10.8%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
58.7% (3,457)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
51.4% (2,826)
-9.7%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Dewar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Dewar shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Dewar
O'Reilly
Home
43.8% (603)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
46.3% (656)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Dewar
O'Reilly
P1
43.7%
55.6%
P2
46.7%
57.0%
P3
45.0%
55.0%
OT
0.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
45.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:23 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:11 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 05:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |