Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs Carrick 52.2% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 76.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 84.0%
Neutral zone
Carrick 75.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 78.7%
21.3%
78.7%
Dewar
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dewar
Carrick
Last 8: Dewar 5-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dewar
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,037)
52.2% (2,544)
-6.8%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
61.3% (75)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
50.8% (435)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dewar is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Dewar shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Dewar
Carrick
Home
43.8% (603)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
46.3% (656)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Dewar
Carrick
P1
43.7%
51.8%
P2
46.7%
52.3%
P3
45.0%
52.6%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
45.1%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 18:12 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 3 | 02:27 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 15:29 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 21, 2022 | 2 | 08:45 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 15:04 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |