Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.1% vs Aho 50.5% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 80.4%
Defensive zone
Dewar 79.4%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.8%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Dewar
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dewar
Aho
Last 6: Dewar 3-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Dewar
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
3
0
Dewar
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Dewar
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (57)
50.5% (878)
-1.4%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
53.5% (144)
+46.5%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (31)
44.3% (61)
-12.0%
On power play, Dewar has a +46.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dewar is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (51).
Dewar shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Dewar
Aho
Home
50.0% (34)
53.8% (571)
Away
40.0% (55)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Dewar
Aho
P1
46.7%
49.0%
P2
30.0%
51.7%
P3
59.3%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
42.9%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
43.8%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |