Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Dewar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs Aho 51.3% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Dewar leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 94.0%
Defensive zone
Dewar 53.5%
Neutral zone
Aho 67.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Dewar
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Dewar
Aho
Last 10: Dewar 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Dewar
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
5
0
Dewar
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Dewar
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,037)
50.2% (6,646)
-4.8%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
58.9% (1,310)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
46.5% (465)
-4.8%
On even strength, Aho has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Dewar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Dewar shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
Dewar
Aho
Home
43.8% (603)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
46.3% (656)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Dewar
Aho
P1
43.7%
51.1%
P2
46.7%
52.1%
P3
45.0%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
47.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
45.1%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 02:40 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 12:14 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |