Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.8% vs 44.6%). Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dewar wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 47.1% vs Thompson 45.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 71.8%
Defensive zone
Dewar 69.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.4%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Dewar
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Dewar
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Dewar
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (57)
44.6% (661)
+4.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
48.4% (95)
+51.6%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (31)
33.3% (33)
-1.0%
On power play, Dewar has a +51.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dewar is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (38).
Dewar shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Dewar
Thompson
Home
50.0% (34)
45.7% (411)
Away
40.0% (55)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Dewar
Thompson
P1
46.7%
47.7%
P2
30.0%
45.7%
P3
59.3%
40.5%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
42.9%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
43.8%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |