Scouting Report
Connor Dewar holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dewar 45.5% vs Thompson 42.8% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Dewar leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 60.9%
Defensive zone
Dewar 74.9%
Neutral zone
Dewar 56.6%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Dewar
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Dewar
Thompson
Last 10: Dewar 5-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dewar
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Dewar
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
1
Dewar
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dewar
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (1,037)
42.9% (3,540)
+2.5%
Power Play
60.9% (23)
46.9% (373)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (199)
33.6% (265)
+8.1%
On power play, Dewar has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Dewar is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (420).
Dewar shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Dewar
Thompson
Home
43.8% (603)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
46.3% (656)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Dewar
Thompson
P1
43.7%
44.4%
P2
46.7%
43.7%
P3
45.0%
40.0%
OT
0.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
47.9%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dewar
42.0%▼
43.5%
45.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 11:57 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 07:28 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:03 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:47 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 13:00 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 02:42 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |