Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Point on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Point wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Point 46.2% vs McDavid 51.0% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 60.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 88.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 61.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Point
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Point
McDavid
Last 6: Point 5-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
0
1
Point
McDavid
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Point
5
0
Point
McDavid
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Point
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (582)
51.6% (803)
-5.7%
Power Play
45.6% (57)
50.0% (40)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
36.4% (22)
-16.4%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Point is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (460).
Point shoots right. McDavid is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Point
McDavid
Home
45.8% (286)
51.8% (415)
Away
45.5% (358)
50.4% (450)
By Period
Point
McDavid
P1
45.9%
47.5%
P2
48.8%
51.6%
P3
40.6%
55.5%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
40.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Point
56.0%▲
48.5%
45.7%
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 14:02 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:54 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Brayden Point |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:28 | Neutral | Brayden Point |