Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Larkin 52.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 64.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
McDavid
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
4
McDavid
Larkin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
McDavid
Larkin
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
51.1% (915)
-3.4%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
59.4% (261)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
48.2% (168)
+0.7%
On power play, Larkin has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
50.0% (412)
51.7% (686)
Away
45.7% (394)
53.0% (658)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
48.0%
52.5%
P2
48.5%
52.7%
P3
47.1%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |