Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 31 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Larkin 52.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 57-47 in 104 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 61.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
McDavid
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
57
(104 meetings)
47
57
McDavid
Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
18
McDavid
Larkin
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
18
McDavid
Larkin
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
18
21
McDavid
Larkin
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
51.6% (9,056)
-3.9%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
58.6% (2,140)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
50.2% (1,124)
-6.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
49.3% (4,582)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
46.5%
52.7%
P2
48.7%
53.1%
P3
48.3%
52.0%
OT
42.2%
58.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:46 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 01:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |