Connor McDavid vs Dylan Larkin

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Dylan Larkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 31 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McDavid 47.8% vs Larkin 52.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor Larkin leads 57-47 in 104 meetings
Offensive zone McDavid 59.4%
Defensive zone McDavid 61.1%
Neutral zone McDavid 59.7%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
McDavid Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
47 - 57 (104 meetings)
47
57
McDavid Larkin
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Larkin

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
18
McDavid Larkin
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
16
18
McDavid Larkin
34 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
18
21
McDavid Larkin
39 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
McDavid
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
51.6% (9,056)
-3.9%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
58.6% (2,140)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
50.2% (1,124)
-6.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +6.5% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Larkin shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Home / Away
McDavid
Larkin
Home
49.3% (4,582)
53.9% (6,277)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
51.4% (6,043)
By Period
McDavid
Larkin
P1
46.5%
52.7%
P2
48.7%
53.1%
P3
48.3%
52.0%
OT
42.2%
58.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.2%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%
51.5%
47.8%
Larkin
48.0%
50.5%
52.7%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Dec 11, 2025 3 17:05 Defensive Connor McDavid
Dec 11, 2025 3 12:46 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Dec 11, 2025 3 09:37 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Dec 11, 2025 2 13:34 Offensive Connor McDavid
Oct 19, 2025 3 03:58 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 3 03:38 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 3 00:06 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 2 09:32 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 2 08:46 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 2 08:40 Defensive Connor McDavid
Oct 19, 2025 2 01:17 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Oct 19, 2025 1 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Jan 30, 2025 3 19:36 Offensive Connor McDavid
Jan 30, 2025 3 11:57 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 3 11:32 Offensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 3 04:31 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 2 05:38 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 1 14:43 Defensive Dylan Larkin
Jan 30, 2025 1 14:38 Offensive Connor McDavid