Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +13.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Miller 60.3% (-13.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 66.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
McDavid
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Miller
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Miller
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
0
3
McDavid
Miller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
62.0% (582)
-14.3%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
65.9% (126)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
50.7% (71)
-1.8%
On power play, Miller has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Miller is 62.3% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
McDavid
Miller
Home
50.0% (412)
63.0% (416)
Away
45.7% (394)
60.1% (363)
By Period
McDavid
Miller
P1
48.0%
60.7%
P2
48.5%
63.9%
P3
47.1%
60.2%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
64.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
61.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |