Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 37 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Miller 54.9% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 49-40 in 89 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 68.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
McDavid
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
49
(89 meetings)
40
49
McDavid
Miller
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
16
13
McDavid
Miller
29 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
10
13
McDavid
Miller
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
14
23
McDavid
Miller
37 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
55.3% (6,690)
-7.6%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
58.0% (1,289)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
48.4% (919)
-4.6%
On even strength, Miller has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Miller is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,938).
Home / Away
McDavid
Miller
Home
49.3% (4,582)
56.0% (4,622)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
53.8% (4,276)
By Period
McDavid
Miller
P1
46.5%
54.8%
P2
48.7%
55.7%
P3
48.3%
54.1%
OT
42.2%
62.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Miller
70.0%▲
64.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 02:01 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 18:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 08:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |