Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Evans 55.0% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 73.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 56.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
McDavid
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
McDavid
Evans
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Evans
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
McDavid
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
McDavid
Evans
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
55.6% (522)
-7.9%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
72.7% (11)
-23.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
55.2% (210)
-6.3%
On power play, Evans has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Evans is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
McDavid
Evans
Home
50.0% (412)
54.7% (402)
Away
45.7% (394)
56.9% (341)
By Period
McDavid
Evans
P1
48.0%
57.9%
P2
48.5%
55.2%
P3
47.1%
53.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |