Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Evans 52.2% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 30-16 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 90.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 80.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
McDavid
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
30
(46 meetings)
16
30
McDavid
Evans
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
11
7
McDavid
Evans
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
13
McDavid
Evans
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
10
McDavid
Evans
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
53.7% (3,740)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
60.6% (71)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
47.1% (1,228)
-3.3%
On power play, Evans has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,738).
Home / Away
McDavid
Evans
Home
49.3% (4,582)
53.3% (2,621)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
51.0% (2,418)
By Period
McDavid
Evans
P1
46.5%
54.0%
P2
48.7%
50.9%
P3
48.3%
52.0%
OT
42.2%
46.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 07:46 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 02:28 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:34 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 08:56 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |