Connor McDavid vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +12.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Pageau 59.0% (-12.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 63.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 94.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 92.0%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 83.6%
16.4%
83.6%
McDavid
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
McDavid
Pageau
Last 6: McDavid 5-1 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Pageau
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
59.4% (726)
-11.7%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
69.0% (42)
-19.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
59.7% (221)
-10.8%
On power play, Pageau has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pageau
Home
50.0% (412)
58.4% (430)
Away
45.7% (394)
61.0% (559)
By Period
McDavid
Pageau
P1
48.0%
55.4%
P2
48.5%
61.8%
P3
47.1%
61.5%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |