Connor McDavid vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 31 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Pageau 54.8% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 63-39 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 92.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 89.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 93.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 91.7%
91.7%
8.3%
McDavid
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
63
(102 meetings)
39
63
McDavid
Pageau
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
19
12
McDavid
Pageau
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
7
24
McDavid
Pageau
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
13
27
McDavid
Pageau
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
55.8% (9,514)
-8.1%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
57.0% (1,007)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
49.6% (2,077)
-5.8%
On even strength, Pageau has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,864).
Home / Away
McDavid
Pageau
Home
49.3% (4,582)
56.3% (6,255)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
McDavid
Pageau
P1
46.5%
54.7%
P2
48.7%
56.3%
P3
48.3%
53.5%
OT
42.2%
54.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 04:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 3 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:32 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 07:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:16 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |