Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Tavares 56.8% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 65.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 81.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McDavid
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
57.7% (975)
-10.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
56.0% (250)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
52.2% (23)
-3.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
50.0% (412)
57.4% (636)
Away
45.7% (394)
57.2% (612)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
48.0%
57.5%
P2
48.5%
56.9%
P3
47.1%
57.5%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.6%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |