Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 33 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Tavares 54.4% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 64-63 in 127 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 57.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
McDavid
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
64
-
63
(127 meetings)
64
63
McDavid
Tavares
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
25
17
McDavid
Tavares
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
12
21
McDavid
Tavares
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
27
25
McDavid
Tavares
52 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
54.0% (16,169)
-6.3%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
56.4% (4,298)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
50.5% (624)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Home / Away
McDavid
Tavares
Home
49.3% (4,582)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
McDavid
Tavares
P1
46.5%
55.0%
P2
48.7%
54.1%
P3
48.3%
54.0%
OT
42.2%
55.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 10:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 07:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:37 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |