Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Norris 52.1% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 22-16 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 73.6%
Neutral zone
McDavid 73.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
McDavid
Norris
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
22
(38 meetings)
16
22
McDavid
Norris
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Norris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
2
6
McDavid
Norris
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
5
McDavid
Norris
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
8
11
McDavid
Norris
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Norris
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
52.5% (3,089)
-4.8%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
53.4% (412)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
45.4% (240)
-1.6%
On even strength, Norris has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Norris shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,419).
Home / Away
McDavid
Norris
Home
49.3% (4,582)
53.1% (1,896)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
51.2% (1,845)
By Period
McDavid
Norris
P1
46.5%
55.5%
P2
48.7%
51.5%
P3
48.3%
50.1%
OT
42.2%
39.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 05:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 15:40 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:17 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:37 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 2 | 12:44 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 2 | 18:03 | Neutral | Josh Norris |