Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 85.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 76.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 76.5%
76.5%
23.5%
McDavid
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Sourdif
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Sourdif
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
44.3% (585)
+3.4%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
50.0% (24)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
61.5% (13)
-12.6%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
McDavid
Sourdif
Home
50.0% (412)
43.6% (321)
Away
45.7% (394)
46.2% (301)
By Period
McDavid
Sourdif
P1
48.0%
41.9%
P2
48.5%
44.3%
P3
47.1%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |