Connor McDavid vs Justin Sourdif
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Sourdif 45.6% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 61.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 75.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
McDavid
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McDavid
Sourdif
Last 5: McDavid 4-1 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Sourdif
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Sourdif
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
44.3% (585)
+3.4%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
50.0% (24)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
61.5% (13)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Sourdif is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
McDavid
Sourdif
Home
49.3% (4,582)
43.6% (321)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
46.2% (301)
By Period
McDavid
Sourdif
P1
46.5%
41.9%
P2
48.7%
44.3%
P3
48.3%
47.9%
OT
42.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Sourdif
36.0%▼
41.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:41 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 07:05 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |