Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 51.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 92.6%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 70.7%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
McDavid
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
McDavid
Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
0
McDavid
Stenlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
56.2% (650)
-8.5%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
53.2% (47)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
51.6% (312)
-2.7%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stenlund
Home
50.0% (412)
56.9% (483)
Away
45.7% (394)
52.5% (526)
By Period
McDavid
Stenlund
P1
48.0%
54.2%
P2
48.5%
53.2%
P3
47.1%
56.9%
OT
50.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |