Connor McDavid vs Kevin Stenlund
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Stenlund 53.9% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 57.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 71.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
McDavid
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
13
(21 meetings)
8
13
McDavid
Stenlund
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
2
McDavid
Stenlund
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
9
McDavid
Stenlund
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McDavid
Stenlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
55.3% (2,738)
-7.6%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
52.6% (116)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
50.4% (924)
-6.6%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
McDavid
Stenlund
Home
49.3% (4,582)
54.3% (1,873)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
53.8% (1,905)
By Period
McDavid
Stenlund
P1
46.5%
56.2%
P2
48.7%
53.3%
P3
48.3%
53.0%
OT
42.2%
52.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 12:59 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 16:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 05:10 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:17 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 3, 2023 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:44 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 11:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |