Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Eller 55.0% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 63.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 83.4%
Neutral zone
Eller 62.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
McDavid
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
56.0% (459)
-8.3%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
77.8% (9)
-28.5%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
51.9% (54)
-3.0%
On power play, Eller has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Eller is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
McDavid
Eller
Home
50.0% (412)
52.6% (215)
Away
45.7% (394)
58.3% (307)
By Period
McDavid
Eller
P1
48.0%
54.1%
P2
48.5%
57.6%
P3
47.1%
56.2%
Final 5 min
50.6%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |