Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Eller 50.5% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 17-11 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 55.9%
Defensive zone
Eller 77.9%
Neutral zone
Eller 64.4%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
McDavid
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
11
(28 meetings)
17
11
McDavid
Eller
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid
Eller
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid
Eller
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
7
5
McDavid
Eller
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
51.1% (10,321)
-3.4%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
52.8% (621)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
46.6% (1,759)
-2.8%
On even strength, Eller has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,142).
Home / Away
McDavid
Eller
Home
49.3% (4,582)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
McDavid
Eller
P1
46.5%
51.2%
P2
48.7%
50.1%
P3
48.3%
50.2%
OT
42.2%
56.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 2 | 13:08 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 10, 2024 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 2 | 19:10 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 14:57 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 5, 2022 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 9, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Mar 9, 2022 | 3 | 12:56 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 16:49 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 1 | 02:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 19:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 18:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |