Connor McDavid vs Macklin Celebrini
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 48.6%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Celebrini shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Celebrini 48.7% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 50.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 53.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
McDavid
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
5
(18 meetings)
13
5
McDavid
Celebrini
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
0
3
McDavid
Celebrini
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
1
McDavid
Celebrini
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
1
McDavid
Celebrini
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
47.8% (993)
-0.1%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
54.1% (111)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
56.0% (25)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Celebrini is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
McDavid
Celebrini
Home
50.0% (412)
48.5% (538)
Away
45.7% (394)
48.7% (591)
By Period
McDavid
Celebrini
P1
48.0%
48.1%
P2
48.5%
46.8%
P3
47.1%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.6%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |