Connor McDavid vs Macklin Celebrini
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 48.4%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Celebrini 48.5% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 51.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
McDavid
Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
9
(24 meetings)
15
9
McDavid
Celebrini
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Celebrini
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
4
McDavid
Celebrini
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid
Celebrini
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
2
McDavid
Celebrini
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
47.5% (1,894)
+0.2%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
54.4% (250)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
55.6% (36)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Celebrini is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,486).
Home / Away
McDavid
Celebrini
Home
49.3% (4,582)
48.0% (1,091)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
48.9% (1,089)
By Period
McDavid
Celebrini
P1
46.5%
47.4%
P2
48.7%
46.6%
P3
48.3%
51.4%
OT
42.2%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Celebrini
48.0%▲
44.5%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:35 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:12 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:05 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 01:34 | Neutral | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:15 | Offensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:28 | Defensive | Macklin Celebrini |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |