Connor McDavid vs Macklin Celebrini

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 48.4%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McDavid 47.8% vs Celebrini 48.5% (-0.6%)
H2H factor McDavid leads 15-9 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone McDavid 51.5%
Defensive zone McDavid 54.1%
Neutral zone McDavid 51.1%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
McDavid Celebrini
Head-to-Head Record
15 - 9 (24 meetings)
15
9
McDavid Celebrini
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Celebrini

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Celebrini
1
4
McDavid Celebrini
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
3
McDavid Celebrini
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
2
McDavid Celebrini
11 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
McDavid
Celebrini
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
47.5% (1,894)
+0.2%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
54.4% (250)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
55.6% (36)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Celebrini has a +11.8% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Celebrini shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Celebrini is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,486).
Home / Away
McDavid
Celebrini
Home
49.3% (4,582)
48.0% (1,091)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
48.9% (1,089)
By Period
McDavid
Celebrini
P1
46.5%
47.4%
P2
48.7%
46.6%
P3
48.3%
51.4%
OT
42.2%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
47.4%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%
51.5%
47.8%
Celebrini
48.0%
44.5%
48.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Mar 17, 2026 3 13:35 Offensive Macklin Celebrini
Mar 17, 2026 3 13:10 Defensive Connor McDavid
Mar 17, 2026 3 11:39 Defensive Macklin Celebrini
Mar 17, 2026 3 11:26 Neutral Connor McDavid
Mar 17, 2026 3 08:12 Neutral Connor McDavid
Mar 17, 2026 3 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Mar 17, 2026 2 12:40 Defensive Connor McDavid
Mar 17, 2026 2 08:17 Neutral Connor McDavid
Mar 17, 2026 2 05:44 Offensive Macklin Celebrini
Mar 17, 2026 1 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Feb 28, 2026 1 08:05 Defensive Connor McDavid
Jan 29, 2026 3 01:34 Neutral Macklin Celebrini
Jan 29, 2026 2 06:42 Neutral Connor McDavid
Jan 29, 2026 2 01:15 Offensive Macklin Celebrini
Jan 29, 2026 2 00:49 Defensive Connor McDavid
Jan 29, 2026 1 19:46 Defensive Connor McDavid
Jan 29, 2026 1 17:07 Neutral Connor McDavid
Jan 29, 2026 1 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Dec 21, 2024 3 07:28 Defensive Macklin Celebrini
Dec 21, 2024 1 16:01 Neutral Connor McDavid