Scouting Report
Mason McTavish holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs McTavish 49.1% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 53.8%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
McDavid
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
McDavid
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
McDavid
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
McDavid
McTavish
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
47.6% (618)
+0.1%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
58.3% (103)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
33.3% (6)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
McDavid
McTavish
Home
50.0% (412)
52.2% (391)
Away
45.7% (394)
45.2% (336)
By Period
McDavid
McTavish
P1
48.0%
50.2%
P2
48.5%
47.7%
P3
47.1%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 09:03 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |