Connor McDavid vs Mikael Backlund
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Backlund 49.8% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 81.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 78.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
McDavid
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
McDavid
Backlund
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
0
McDavid
Backlund
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
McDavid
Backlund
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
McDavid
Backlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
50.5% (944)
-2.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
51.5% (66)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
47.1% (297)
+1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
McDavid
Backlund
Home
50.0% (412)
48.1% (636)
Away
45.7% (394)
51.4% (671)
By Period
McDavid
Backlund
P1
48.0%
45.4%
P2
48.5%
54.1%
P3
47.1%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.6%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:03 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:02 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 04:37 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 03:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |